Interesting thoughts Art,
I am listening
Rob Morton
88 Woodlands Lane, Bald Hills
Postal addres (P.O. Box 185)
Pambula NSW 2549
Phone: 02 6495 7414 Fax: 02 6495 7139 Mobile: 0428 246 903
email: robmorton@ozemail.com.au
···
From: sailwave@yahoogroups.com [mailto:sailwave@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Art Engel
Sent: Tuesday, 4 December 2012 11:59
To: sailwave@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [sailwave] Re: PHRF Handicaps
Rob et al,
Let me make a few observations here.
PHRF
First, PHRF is simply a handicap system, typically with rating issued in
seconds per mile of adjustment from a base boat. It does not change
after each race or even based solely on race results. Instead, a
handicapping committee will set and adjust PHRF handicaps. The system of
changing based solely on race results is known as “golf” or “skipper”
handicapping in the US and usually uses PHRF handicaps as a starting
point. That seems to have caused some confusion here.
I believe Sailwave pretty much always refers to “golf” or “skipper”
handicaps as “personal handicaps.” This can get confusing as both PHRF
and “personal handicaps” tend to be abbreviated and referred to as “PH.”
MEDIAN BOAT
I think you generally want to be using the median boat when making these
kind of comparisons. [Median is middle of odd number of boats and
average of middle two of even number of boats.]
If you use the first boat for comparison it is basically like realigning
all boats to perform the same as the 1st-place boat. That moves the
“average” of the fleet faster and faster with each recalculation. Any
new boat could then have a significant advantage because she will start
from the base handicap. Using multiple races should slow the trend but
doesn’t change its direction.
You don’t want to use an average because of “outliers.” Typically those
will be boats that had some problem and aren’t just last but are “way”
last. That has no impact on the median but would have an impact on the
average. Sometimes, you see the 33rd percentile used instead of median
(also called 50th percentile). Probably not too bad. It is based on the
assumption that the bottom third of a fleet is clueless so it uses the
median of the top two-thirds of a fleet. While that might sometimes be
true I suspect using the median would be at least as good and possibly
better in all situations. Using the 33rd percentile should cause an
upward bias like using the 1st-place boat, just not as strong.
INTENTIONALLY LOSING
I don’t see an easy way to fix this. I don’t think it breaks any rule
(after all, you can attack a competitor to hurt his performance as long
as you don’t break a rule - I don’t see any reason why you cannot sit on
your own performance in the same way). Plus, it requires reading into
the mind of the competitor, which is not yet scientifically possible (if
it ever will be!).
One obvious way around this is to use the last X races ignoring the best
and worst Y races. That should take care of the biggest “luck” factor
(both good and bad). For example, I might use the middle three of the
last five races. Methodology would be to: 1- calculate difference
between this boat and the median boat for every race, 2- discard biggest
and smallest differences, 3- calculate and use average of remaining
three races, 4- take some percentage (might be 100% or might be less)
and apply to the current race score.
My club uses just the last race (one race only) so we definitely see
boats intentionally losing by big margins. We assume it will all work
out in the end so don’t worry too much about it (we adjust by 15% of the
difference with a per-race cap). Using just the last race greatly
simplifies the calculations and our scoring program (not Sailwave for
those races) can handle it easily (it prints out the rating for the next
race right in the results for the current race). [Sailwave can currently
handle adjustments based on the last race but it only works for the 1st
or last boat as comparator and I believe only applies 100% of the
adjustment.]
I don’t think you can include a non-result race (a race a boat doesn’t
sail in) as that makes assumptions about how the boat would have done -
assumptions that are clearly wrong. Because of that, the calculation
formula is somewhat more difficult although Excel handles that well as
it ignores cells without data when calculating (cannot have a zero, it
needs to be blank).
I briefly tested Jon’s “outside Sailwave” solution and it is pretty
decent. Most importantly, it allows customization of the calculation
formula. The only downside is it is in a separate program and requires
Excel to work.
Jon - I don’t see a lot of incentive to put this into Sailwave although
I know a lot of people want it. The problem is they all want something
different. Your “outside” solution works quite well, I believe. The
problem with putting it into Sailwave is it only makes sense if you can
allow for the myriad of possible systems, and that seems like far more
work then the potential benefit would justify.
Glitch - Some time ago Colin attempted to allow the use of automatic
adjustments from the last race based on boats other than the 1st-place
boat. The programming got messed up and that works for the 1st-place and
last-place boat but not for the boats in between. If you could fix that
it is probably worthwhile. I think that would do what the OP
(mooloolabayachtclub@yahoo.com.au) asked about. I think it needs to be
formula-based where you would write a formula for the adjustment to the
current handicap (with a choice of variables for first, median and last).
For the record, I don’t think it matters whether you use the technical
median (average of two middle boats for even-sized finishers) or some
approximation (first of two such middle boats). What does matter is the
calculation is always the same. Currently, if you put in 50% Sailwave
sometimes uses the middle of odd-sized fleets and sometimes uses the
boat before the middle boat. And, if you have an even-sized fleet
Sailwave sometimes uses the first and sometimes the second of the two
middle boats. There seems to be no rhyme or reason to what Sailwave will
do so it cannot be written up for the SIs.
Art
On 12/2/2012 4:13 AM, Rob Morton wrote:
Thanks for your very quick response, Jon!
I can certainly see many problems with this, but many clubs and some
regattas do hold handicap events, and there will always be compromises.
Abnormal situations, people trying to go slower etc will always be a
potential problem. I don’t have an answer to that.Our club has chosen average over 4 races, but it could be just as easily 2
or 3. I have taken the stance that if people do not race, they will be
counted as 0 secs behind the winner for those races, so will have
potentially less handicap adjustment.I will have a good look at your excel spreadsheet. I have been trying to
work with time in excel and have difficulty using equations for two times,
such as seconds behind the winner. I will keep tryingCheers
Rob Morton
Pambula NSW Australia
From: sailwave@yahoogroups.com [mailto:sailwave@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf
Of Jon Eskdale
Sent: Sunday, 2 December 2012 22:48
To: sailwave@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [sailwave] Re: PHRF HandicapsHi Rob,
The problem as I see it is there is no standard for Personal Handicap
perhaps the nearest one being ECHO but even then there are potentially quite
a few manual adjustments and parameters change.I appreciate this is an area of interest to several people and I will have
a solution in the near future but at this moment the best I can offer is the
program that wrote a short while ago before I took over the Sailwave
development and at that time had no way of modifying Sailwave. It is
however a workable solution but now with my new role I can integrate it much
tighter with Sailwave and make it much nicer to use but that is going to
take a while as I’m still on a steep learning curve with the Sailwave source
and the Language but we are getting there slowly.But I’m interested in any info you can give me as to how you would like to
see it develop. Any example of what you envisage doing would also be
useful.Averaging over the last 4 races - What do you do if you have less than 4
races as an example. And how do you handle exception circumstances or
deliberate loosing to adjust handicap?I think this type of solution where info from Sailwave is fed automatically
into Excel and then you supply the formula in Excel which calculates the new
rating and Excel automatically puts it back into Sailwave is the best until
a “Standard” is defined. With my new role I will make the integration much
slicker. If you haven’t already have a look at thisDetails of the program are here
https://sites.google.com/site/eskdalesite/home/swph
Jon
On 2 December 2012 11:25, Rob Mortonrobmorton@ozemail.com.au wrote:
This is dear to my heart too.
Over the last number of years, we used to just look at the places in our
handicap races, and adjust them to try to get everyone finishing together.
With our handicap races, we start at different times, hopefully finishing at
the same time.I have now taken this over and am trying to average the last 4 races
‘seconds behind winner’ (rounded to the nearest minute), to give all a new
handicap. I am doing this using an excel spreadsheet, manually and
calculating the handicap change for each boat. It is a good thing that we
have a small club!Any ideas, Jon?
Rob Morton
Pambula NSW Australia
From: sailwave@yahoogroups.com [mailto:sailwave@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf
Of mooloolabayachtclub
Sent: Sunday, 2 Dec ember 2012 11:31
To: sailwave@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [sailwave] Re: PHRF HandicapsThanks Mark. Will chase up Jon as don’t want to be doing manual handicapping
!!TraceyJ
— In sailwave@yahoogroups.commailto:sailwave%40yahoogroups.com ,
Malcolm Osborne<malcolmo@…> wrote:Sailewave per se does not do exactly what you are wanting, i.e. the
automatic updating of handicaps based on previous races. It can be done
manually with the aid of the BCR (back calculated rating, or rating to
win) figures produced by SW in each race for each contestant. These
figures can be averaged to arrive at a value for the next race.But I believe that our new developer has c reated an add-on which will do
this - Jon?
regards,
Malcolm Osborne
Sedgefield South AfricaOn 2012/12/01 07:54, mooloolabayachtclub wrote:
Starting from scatch as a novice Sailwave user, I am failing to find
how to set up race results so that the PHRF handicap, which was used
for the first race result, is set-up so that each following race the
handicap is automatically modified based on the results of the boats
in the previous race. Is there, somewhere, a written guide on how to
set-up and run PHRF handicap racing with Sailwave ?