-----Original Message-----
From: Geoff Burrell [mailto:geoff.burrell@btinternet.com]
Sent: 29 August 2004 23:49
To: sailwave@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [sailwave] points system technical note
Hi Colin
Yes I am happy for you to publish the formula. You will need to clarify
that this is not exactly the same as in the Rinderle B table but it does
however follow the same principles.
A simpler presentation for publication (without the IFs) might be:
Points = a*[1 - exp -(b + c*N)]*(S - P)/(S - 1) + d
Where my recommended values are:
a = 89.5
b = 0.8
c = 0.23
d = 10.5
S is the Number of Starters in the race
P is the Position
When presenting the results to participants I recommend rounding to one
decimal place.
DSQ/OCS/DNC = 0
Please excuse the typo in my previous message: RTD/DNF = 5 (not 0.5).
As regards Cox-Sprague I agree with you that the formula quoted does not
make sense and any amount of fiddling does not put it right!
Anyway I really do not like the Cox-Sprague method for several reasons.
First the range of points attributed to a win is (in my view) far to
extreme, ranging from 10 (for a 2 boat race) to 100 (for a 20+ boat race).
It is more complicated than Rinderle in that the points scored are divided
by the maximum number of points that could have been scored in
the series to
date, and this is converted to a running fraction.
Races with fewer participants contribute far less to the overall
score than
is justified and this is made even worse by adding the points into the
numerator and denominator by the method described. (The stated
principle in
which the system automatically gives lesser weight to the smaller races
would be OK were it not for the fact that the C-S scheme takes this to an
excessive, unfair extreme).
The complexity of the system (especially the running fraction feature) is
such that participants cannot readily keep track of how well they
are doing
through the race series - the issue of ease of understanding is one of the
biggest criticisms I have experienced for this type of system and
one has to
be sympathetic to this when introducing any such scoring scheme.
The scores for a last place do not work in a logical sequence.
I have a personal objection to giving beneficial scores to DSQ boats.
The system runs off the end of the scale at 80+ boats.
Although not stated in the abstract I assume that everyone who
uses the C-S
system would require a qualifying number of races to be sailed
and counted -
so that the worst scores are discarded if one does more than the
qualifying
number. I think this is an essential element of a high point scoring
system. However this is yet a further complication of C-S which is much
easier to implement and for sailors to comprehend in a Rinderle type of
system.
As you can see my view is that Cox Sprague has very little to recommend it
except for one thing. That is the non-linear nature of the scores - in
which the differences are larger for positions nearer the front of the
fleet - this is a good feature.
Were there to be an interest I could add a couple of further modifications
to my formula:
(a) include the above non-linear feature
(b) make the scores for last place dependent on the number of
participants.
But so many people have played with scoring methods in the past I
am not too
sure whether I should bother to do this or not.
Best regards
Geoff B
-----Original Message-----
From: Colin Jenkins [mailto:colin@sailwave.com]
Sent: 29 August 2004 10:51
To: sailwave@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [sailwave] points system technical note
Hi Geoff,
Thanks. Can I publish this formula in the points system technical note?
with a credit of course.
Greg Bemis, in "Yacht Race Scoring" says that the Cox-Sprague formula is:-
Points = 1311 - 100 * CubeRoot(20*P + 11)
But I don't see how, because the number of starters is not in there... the
20 could be it.. The points have to be divided by the winners points as
well.
It might be a good idea to dream up a simple equation (no if's) of our own
that achieves the same thing. i.e. making the assumption that it's harder
to win when there are more boats in the race and it's harder in
any race to
move up a place near the front of the fleet.
See also this:-
"The following is an abstracted/paraphrased/quoted copmpendium taken
from Chapter 17 of Win More Sailboat Races by C. Stanley Ogilvy, (W.W.
Norton, 1976) (and edited by me); Geoff Newbury".
*****************
In or about 1970, William S. Cox and Henry Sprague became interested
in devising a 'best possible' scoring system to overcome the
inequities they observed in then current scoring systems:
1. Unrealistic award of points in any one race.
2. Incorrect weighting of the fleet size in a race.
3. Disregard of the disastrous effects of dnf/dns.
Cox-Sprague works best in a long series of races where a boat is
allowed a high percentage of absenteeism. Once a threshold number of
qualifying races is sailed, the presence or absence of a yacht in a
particular race is irrelevant to its score, which is based solely on
its placings in the races it sailed, and the number of boats it sailed
against in each race.
With low-point systems, (including Bonus-point or "Olympic") a DNS,
DNF, retirement or DSQ scores one more than the number of boats
entered. This is acceptable for a short regatta where all yachts
entered are expected to sail all the races, but does not work over a
summer, as one weekend missed is an insurmountable obstacle.
High-point systems are susceptible to the opposite effect, and can
also be sensitive to the fleet size.
Cox-Sprague ignores the races which a boat does not sail. It is only
interested in the races actually sailed. Cox-Sprague varies the points
awarded in relation to the fleet size. It addresses the inequities
listed above as follows:
1. Most systems allow equal points for equal changes of position, but
it is not as easy to move from 5th to 3rd as from 15th to 13th. In
Cox-Sprague the points are not linear but on a curve that says it is
twice as hard to go from 2nd to 1st as from 5th to 4th, and three
times as hard as from 10th to 9th.
Cox-Sprague is not linear, nor quite as non-linear as the Olympic
scoring curve. More importantly, the difference in points between
boats similarly placed is the same, whatever the fleet size. What
differs is that the number of points awarded differs with fleet size.
First always gets 6 more points than second, but first gets 43 in a
fleet of 4 and 100 in a fleet of 20 or more.
2. A boat's score for a race is obtained by dividing the points earned
*by the possible points she coud have earned*. If a boat finished 3rd
among 18 starters, then she earns 88 of 98 possible points (or .898).
This is almost as good as 3rd in 20 (.900) and much better than 3rd
among 4 boats (.767).
The boat's overall score is kept not by averaging the points for each
day (which would equally weight all races notwithstanding the
different fleet size), but by totalling the points earned and dividing
that total by the sum of all possible points for the races sailed. A
running fraction is maintained so that after each race points are
added to both the numerator and denominator, and the resulting new
fraction is the score to date. This procedure automatically gives
lesser weight to smaller races.
Together with item 1 this means that as between boats who are always
out sailing, the point scores for their relative positions is
dependant solely on their results, and completely independant of the
fleet size. If A gets first to B's third in a large fleet on Saturday
and they then sail to a 3-1 on Sunday in a small fleet, their results
are the same. They earn the same number of points, which should be the
case for a 'fair' system.
3. Under traditional systems, a DSQ or DNF puts a boat out of
contention. A worst race exemption mitigates this but is not effective
for season-type championships where there may be any number of races
not sailed. With a drop race, each boat's score is unknown until the
end and the calculations must be done twice on a running basis.
Cox-Sprague makes the penalty much less severe, about 58/100 instead
of 0/100 and no drop is necessary. A DNS is irrelevant to the system,
neither adding nor subtracting points.
**************
Regards,
Colin
www.sailwave.com
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Geoff Burrell [mailto:geoff.burrell@btinternet.com]
> Sent: 28 August 2004 11:30
> To: sailwave@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: RE: [sailwave] points system technical note
>
>
> Hi Colin
> OK here is the CSC-modified Rinderle formula presented in the
form entered
> into Excel:
>
> Points
> =IF(N>=P,ROUND(89.5*(1-EXP(-(0.8+0.23*N)))*(IF(N=1,1,(N-P)/(N-1)))
> ,1)+10.5,"
> ")
>
> where N is the Number of Starters and P is the Position.
>
> In addition for RTD, DNF, etc, then Points = 0.5
> And for a DSQ, DNC (and in my view also for a DNS) then Points = 0
>
> This is exactly the form of Jim Rinderle's original formula but with the
> parameters 89.5, 0.8 and 0.23 changed a bit. Clearly one can
> dream up other
> variations by changing the parameters, including also changing
the 10.5 if
> one wishes to apply something different for last position. .
> Although I have not seen any presentation of the formula used for Cox
> Sprague there are obvious similarities with that but, in that
> case, the last
> place value is a function of the number of participants. But I guess
> someone must know the Cox Sprague formula (rather than having to use the
> look up table). I have not checked in detail but it may be
> possible to add
> a further element to my formula to make it equivalent to Cox
Sprague or at
> worst a close approximation, you would then only need to choose the
> parameters to match whatever scoring system is desired.
> I hate look-up tables and I always go for a formula to simplify
things and
> give maximum flexibility.
> Hope this is useful.
> Best regards,
> Geoff B
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Colin Jenkins [mailto:colin@sailwave.com]
> Sent: 28 August 2004 10:29
> To: sailwave@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: RE: [sailwave] points system technical note
>
>
> Hi Geoff,
>
> Would you be prepared to let me know the formula - I would prefer to
> implement that, rather then use a table.
>
> I have emailed Jim R a few times asking the same, but he does
not respond.
>
> Regards,
> Colin J
> www.sailwave.com
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Geoff Burrell [mailto:geoff.burrell@btinternet.com]
> > Sent: 25 August 2004 21:40
> > To: sailwave@yahoogroups.com
> > Subject: RE: [sailwave] points system technical note
> >
> >
> > Hi Colin et al
> > You may be interested in my comments on the Rinderle B System.
> > The table commonly quoted as being gospel for Rinderle B has some
> > anomalies
> > in it and if inspected closely it does not actually reflect the
> > values that
> > were derived some long time ago using Jim Rinderle's original formula.
> > There is clearly an advantage for a system such as Sailwave if a
> > formula is
> > used rather than a look-up table. So I have derived such a
> formula, which
> > matches the principles of Rinderle B but with some very minor
> > improvements.
> > One such improvement is to make the score for a win against
an infinite
> > number of boats = 100.
> > (In practice my formula gives a score of 99.9 for a win in a 25
> boat race.
> > (The current Rinderle B table gives 100.5 instead of 100 for
an infinite
> > number of boats. The extra 0.5 seems a bit pointless.)
> > At the other end I have set it so that a win in a 3 boat race gives
> > approximately 80 points (actually 79.8).
> > The score for last place in any size of race remains at 10.5 with
> > the score
> > for a retirement being 5.
> > I believe this is a more understandable and useful way of applying the
> > Rinderle B principles - but of course that is only my personal view.
> > Rather than present the formula here I have attached a
> spreadsheet for the
> > table for races of between 3 and 25 boats. The formula is of
> > course present
> > in each cell and it also includes the fiddly bits that round
> all scores to
> > one decimal place and avoids putting rubbish in non-used cells.
> > Best regards,
> > Geoff B
> > Sailing Secretary, Chipstead SC
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
> >
> >
> >
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